The Brewers Association (BA) is estimating that 2024 will be a second year of declining sales for independently owned craft breweries. In the BA’s midyear survey, craft saw an estimated decline in production of -2% and the association estimates that the full-year number may be weaker than the midyear estimate.
Full year 2023 data showed a -1% decline in BA-defined craft brewery production.
“Craft has been going through a painful period of rationalization as demand growth has slowed and retailers and distributors look to simplify their offerings or add options for flavor and variety outside of the craft category,” said Bart Watson, vice president of strategy and membership, Brewers Association. “That said, breweries have reacted to these changes by focusing on distribution, continuing to innovate in their taprooms and brewpubs, creating groups and partnerships, and offering a wider range of beverages in their portfolios.”
The BA has tracked 335 new brewery openings and 399 closings so far this year. The number of small and independent breweries in operation in the U.S. in 2024 totaled 9,736.
The big winner in 2024 was non-alcoholic beer, which is more difficult for small craft breweries to make than larger, more sophisticated brewers. Off-premise scan dollar sales for non-alcohol beer grew by an amazing 30% year-over-year from January through October according to the BA.
“As the craft beer landscape evolves, the industry is poised for another challenging year in 2025, with additional uncertainty, potential tariffs and rising costs, retailers and distributors looking to simplify offerings, and potential new dietary guidelines for beverage alcohol,” according to a statement released by the BA. “Market pressures will likely lead to continued consolidation and alliances to cut costs and utilize excess capacity.”
“Brewers are experiencing critical challenges at the crossroads of a high-cost environment paired with slowing growth,” said Watson. “To grow in 2025, brewers must do what they do best: adapt. They also will need to continue to do the hard work to find ways to tell their story and differentiate their brands against the competition.”
See the full BA statement here.